Europe's heat dome has killed over 1,000 people. India's June monsoon rainfall was 33% below average. The same stalled MJO pattern drove both extremes.
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Europe is in the grip of a deadly heatwave while India just recorded one of its driest Junes in over a century. The two extremes share a common driver: a stalled weather pattern linked to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
The heatwave gripping parts of southern and western Europe is being amplified by a heat dome – a high-pressure system that traps hot air and prevents cooler air from moving in. Temperatures have exceeded 40°C in several cities, and the death toll has climbed past 1,000 in Spain and Portugal alone, local health authorities said.
On the other side of the continent, the same MJO phase that helped lock the heat dome over Europe also disrupted the southwest monsoon over India. The MJO, a band of rain clouds that moves eastward along the equator every 30 to 60 days, was stuck in a phase that suppresses convection over the Indian subcontinent. That left June rainfall 33% below the long-period average, the India Meteorological Department said.
The concern now is July. If the MJO shifts into a favourable phase in the next two weeks, the monsoon could recover quickly. If it stays stuck, the rainfall deficit will widen further, threatening kharif sowing of rice, cotton and oilseeds.
Climate change is loading the dice. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, which intensifies both droughts and deluges. The same physics that made Europe's heat dome more intense also makes India's monsoon more erratic when the MJO stalls.
Both events are a reminder that weather extremes are no longer rare. They are the new baseline.
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