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ETF Breadth Narrows: 199 of 311 Above 39-Week SMA
The Cutline report shows 199 high-volume ETFs above their 39-week SMA, down from 221. The narrowing breadth signals weakening internal market support for trend-following strategies.
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The latest High-Volume ETF Cutline report, updated through May 15, 2026, shows a clear shift in market breadth. Only 199 of the 311 tracked ETFs now trade above their 39-week simple moving average, down from 221 in the prior period. That drop of 22 funds represents a meaningful deterioration in the number of ETFs holding their long-term uptrends.
The Cutline method tracks ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, filtering out obscure funds. The 39-week SMA acts as a trend line; funds above it are considered in an uptrend, while those below it are in a downtrend. The report’s yellow line marks the boundary – what the author calls the “line of shame” – separating winners from losers. With 199 above and 112 below, the ratio has shifted from roughly 71% above to 64% above.
The Cutline Shift: 199 ETFs Above Trend Line
Breadth measures like this one often lead price action. When fewer ETFs are above their trend lines, the underlying market is losing internal support. Sector rotation, profit-taking, or a broad risk-off move can cause this kind of compression. The change from 221 to 199 is not a crash signal. It does indicate that the market’s foundation is narrowing. Traders who rely on trend-following strategies may need to reduce exposure or tighten stops.
The report covers a wide range of asset classes: US equities, international equities, fixed income, commodities, and sector ETFs. A decline in the number of funds above the 39-week SMA implies that the trend is weakening across multiple categories, not just one isolated group. That makes the signal more reliable than a single-sector breakdown.