Eli Lilly reported Q2 revenue of $11.3B, up 36%. Mounjaro sales missed consensus by $200M. Full-year guidance raised. Donanemab FDA decision due Q4. Alpha Score 68.
Alpha Score of 40 reflects weak overall profile with moderate momentum, poor value, moderate quality, moderate sentiment.
Eli Lilly shares fell 1.2% on Wednesday after the company reported second-quarter earnings that showed a miss on Mounjaro sales, overshadowing a raised full-year revenue forecast.
Revenue came in at $11.3 billion, up 36% from a year earlier. Mounjaro, the GLP-1 drug for diabetes, generated $3.1 billion in sales, roughly $200 million below consensus. Zepbound, the obesity version, added $1.2 billion, slightly above estimates.
Management lifted the full-year revenue outlook to a range of $45.4 billion to $46.6 billion, up from $42.4 billion to $43.6 billion. The move reflects strong demand and expanded manufacturing capacity. One sell-side analyst said the guidance raise is real. The Q2 miss on Mounjaro raises questions about market share gains versus Novo Nordisk.
Lilly's pipeline also drew attention. The company expects FDA action on its experimental Alzheimer's drug donanemab in the fourth quarter. Some analysts estimate peak sales of $5 billion to $10 billion. The near-term narrative, however, remains tied to GLP-1 competition and the manufacturing ramp.
The stock trades at roughly 38 times forward earnings, a premium to the sector but below its five-year average of 45 times. Eli Lilly's Alpha Score of 68 out of 100 reflects a Moderate rating, balancing strong fundamentals against elevated expectations.
The next catalyst on the calendar is the FDA decision on donanemab, expected before year-end.
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