El Niño May Hit 176-Year Record, Disrupt Crops Through 2027

The 2015-2016 super El Niño caused an estimated $90 billion in direct global damage. Long-term effects from disruptions to agriculture, infrastructure, and supply chains ran into the trillions. The current event could surpass that. NOAA's temperature departure chart, going back to 1950, gives a sense of the sweep.

Longer term, the warming rate is accelerating. Hansen's calculations show a rate of 0.43 degrees Celsius per decade across five datasets. That puts +1.5°C warming this year, +2.0°C within 10 years, and +2.5°C in the 2040s. Almost everyone alive now will live through that.

Neuburger writes that what to do is a topic on its own. He suggests preparing for durable climate effects through the 2027 growing season, not just the peak months. The freight train is coming, he says, and it's not just farmers on the tracks.