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Crypto on Watch as U.S. Data, Iran Tensions Converge
Bitcoin slipped 2% as a packed U.S. data calendar and renewed U.S.-Iran talks tested risk appetite. PCE inflation and Q1 GDP are the marquee events this week.
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Crypto markets opened the week under pressure. Bitcoin slipped 2% on Monday as the dollar index climbed and geopolitical risk returned with the resumption of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. The move erased gains from the previous week and put the largest digital asset back below $65,000.
This week's U.S. data calendar is the densest in months. Monday's flash PMI figures came in slightly below expectations, a soft start that kept the pressure on risk assets. Tuesday brings new home sales. Wednesday's first-quarter GDP revision is the first major release, followed by the PCE inflation reading on Friday. Thursday offers weekly jobless claims and pending home sales. Friday also wraps with personal income, consumer sentiment, and the University of Michigan's inflation expectations survey.
The PCE print is the marquee event for crypto traders. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge has run above consensus for two straight months. Each surprise pushed rate-cut expectations further into 2025 and lifted the dollar. Bitcoin and ether fell in those sessions. A third consecutive hot print would repeat that pattern and test the $60,000 support zone on bitcoin, traders said.
The geopolitical layer adds a tail risk separate from the data. The U.S.-Iran talks, which had stalled for months, resumed over the weekend. Oil futures rose 1.5% on Monday, and gold ticked higher. Crypto moved in the opposite direction, with bitcoin losing ground. The correlation with traditional risk assets has tightened in recent weeks, making the data cycle and the Iran outcome two forces pulling in the same direction.
Thursday's GDP revision offers a preview. If the number is revised down, the dollar could soften and give crypto room to recover. If it prints at or above the initial estimate, the pressure continues. Friday's PCE will settle the week's direction. The Fed has no meeting until May, so this data cycle is the last major input before that decision. Traders will watch both prints for the next signal on rate policy and risk appetite.