Crypto Can Survive CLARITY Failure, Not the Wait: Bitwise CIO

A definitive vote in either direction would resolve the uncertainty. If the CLARITY Act passes, it provides a statutory framework for digital asset classification and exchange registration. If it fails and is replaced by a clear alternative such as an SEC safe harbor, the market gets its resolution. Hougan's emphasis is on the decision itself, not its content. The risk would also decline if the SEC or CFTC issued formal guidance on token classification, even without Congress. That requires coordinated agency action, which historically moves slower than legislation.

Worst-Case Scenario: A Pattern of Postponements

The worst outcome is a cycle of delays: hearings postponed, markups canceled, votes pushed beyond the next election cycle. Each new deadline extension erodes market confidence that the US will ever provide clarity. That pushes infrastructure providers and developers to jurisdictions with settled rules – Singapore, the UAE, parts of the EU. The talent and liquidity migration accelerates. A fragmented outcome – separate bills for stablecoins and market structure passing at different times – would create its own uncertainty, though less severe than total inaction.

Next Catalyst: The Congressional Calendar

The immediate trigger is the congressional calendar. Any scheduled floor vote or committee report on the CLARITY Act will serve as the first concrete signal on whether the wait continues or ends. Until then, the market trades on the assumption that limbo persists. Hougan's framework suggests that assumption itself is the main headwind, not the political odds.

For context on how the bill's passage odds have shifted, see CLARITY Act Passage Odds Drop to 60%, Galaxy Digital Says.