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CLARITY Act Passage Odds Drop to 60%, Galaxy Digital Says
Galaxy Digital cuts CLARITY Act passage odds to 60% after committee win. The downgrade signals election-year headwinds for US crypto rulebook. Next marker: committee report by April.
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Galaxy Digital has cut the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year to 60%, according to the firm's latest legislative tracker. The downgrade comes just weeks after the bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee. It signals that Washington's first major digital asset rulebook is losing momentum as the election calendar compresses.
The CLARITY Act would define which digital assets are securities versus commodities, set a federal framework for exchanges, and preempt state-level money transmitter licenses. A 60% probability is not a death knell. It marks a significant step back from the near-certain passage assumed after the committee vote. The read-through for crypto markets is straightforward: continued regulatory ambiguity means US-based infrastructure companies face another year of compliance uncertainty. Institutional capital that requires a clear rule of law will stay on the sidelines.
What the 60% Probability Reveals About the Legislative Calendar
The committee passage in late 2023 had generated expectations of a floor vote early in 2024. The drop to 60% suggests that Republican leadership has not prioritised the bill. Alternatively, the White House may have signalled a veto threat over consumer protection provisions. Without a whip count, the actual path is murky. The probability decline is self-reinforcing: the lower the perceived chance, the less lobbying resources get deployed. That makes it easier for the bill to slip to a must-pass vehicle or die in conference.
The key mechanic here is the Senate's calendar. With a presidential election in November, the window for non-appropriations floor time closes around September. If the CLARITY Act does not secure a scheduling agreement – a unanimous consent or a cloture vote – by late summer, its odds fall to near zero. The 60% figure already bakes in a spring floor push. The downward revision suggests Galaxy Digital sees headwinds on either whip count or floor leadership.
Sector Read-Through: Who Gains and Loses From Delay
The sector most exposed to the CLARITY Act's passage probability is US-regulated crypto infrastructure. Exchange operators, custody providers, and OTC desks all spend heavily on legal counsel to navigate state-by-state licensing. A failure to pass the act means those costs persist indefinitely. On the other side, DeFi protocols and offshore exchanges have less direct exposure because they operate outside US securities law regardless. Their risk is secondary – if the act fails, the SEC may pursue enforcement against DeFi bridges and wallets with a more aggressive theory of jurisdiction.