Crude Oil Targets Pre-War Level 68 After Ceasefire Holds

Crude oil retested the 79.20 resistance area last week and then turned lower. The drop followed a reaffirmation of the ceasefire between Iran and the United States. The agreement, reached earlier in 2026, ended the conflict that had threatened Persian Gulf shipping and Iranian production. With the ceasefire still intact, the supply disruption premium that pushed oil above $80 a barrel continues to decay.

Each week without a new incident erodes the war risk premium built into the price. The next downside objective is the pre-war level near $68.00. That zone represented the trading range before hostilities escalated in late 2025. A move to that area would retrace the entire war-driven rally.

The rejection at 79.20 has technical weight. The level was a prior resistance from October 2025. The market failed to hold above it on two consecutive weekly closes, signaling that sellers remain in control above that mark. The rejection pushed the daily RSI below 40, a sign that momentum has shifted to the downside. The 50-day moving average, which had been flattening during the war, is now sloping lower. The price closed below that average last week for the first time since the conflict began.

For traders working this setup, the confirmation signal is a weekly close below $75.00. That would open a clean path to $68.00. The invalidation signal is a weekly close above $79.20. A stop on a short position initiated near the resistance could sit above $80.00, offering a risk-reward of roughly 3:1 to the 68 target. A trailing stop below $75.00 once that level breaks would lock in early gains.