
WTI gapped lower before recovering near its 50-day EMA; Brent hit fresh swing highs. FXEmpire's Chris calls crude 'noisy and neutral' until Hormuz resolves.
WTI crude gapped lower at the open, then reversed and pushed higher. The contract now sits just above the 50-day EMA, the level many short-term traders use to separate trend from range. The bigger story, FXEmpire senior analyst Chris said, is the noise: prices are moving on each new headline out of the Strait of Hormuz, often in both directions within a few hours.
Interest rates remain a secondary issue, he said. The standoff between the United States and Iran over whether the strait stays open has pushed fundamentals aside, he said, and oil is grinding back and forth while traders wait to see which side flinches first.
Brent shows the same pattern. The international benchmark made a new swing high, and recent sessions traced a V-shaped recovery. Chris said a flare-up in the strait would, more likely than not, drive prices higher, though he said that outcome was far from certain.
Chris said part of the chop may be seasonal. The oil calendar is normally quiet this time of year, and some participants are staying on the sidelines rather than adding positions into a market that can turn on a single headline. Traders have been scattered in both directions, he said, which keeps ranges tight and makes for abrupt moves.
The current setup, Chris said, is 'noisy and neutral.'
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