Crude Oil Stalls Near $85 as Traders Wait on Middle East Headlines

The back-and-forth has kept prices rangebound for most of May. WTI has traded between $80 and $85 since the start of the month. Brent has held a narrower band between $87 and $90. Open interest in NYMEX crude futures has been flat, suggesting positioning is neutral rather than directional.

The next catalyst could come from the US CPI report due Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. A hot print would likely push the dollar higher, weighing on dollar-denominated commodities including crude. A soft print would do the opposite. But traders said oil's reaction to the data may be muted if Middle East headlines continue to dominate.

"CPI matters for the macro picture, but oil is trading on geopolitics right now," Yawger said. "A break of $85 or a drop below $80 will need a catalyst from that direction, not from inflation data."

For now, the market is waiting. The next headline out of Tehran or Washington will set the tone.