Crude oil futures climbed Tuesday as uncertainty over US-Iran talks persisted; ING analysts warned of room for renewed escalation. Brent up 1.3%.
Crude oil futures climbed Tuesday morning as the outlook for talks between the US and Iran stayed murky. October Brent futures on ICE traded at $84.87 a barrel, up 1.31%, while September WTI futures on NYMEX stood at $81.11, up 0.96%. On India's Multi Commodity Exchange, August crude futures opened at ₹7,733, a 1.15% gain from the previous close.
President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran's leadership is "unbelievably duplicitous," accusing Tehran of asking for talks then denying them. He warned that nothing gets through to Iran unless "a Deal, or Total Surrender, is accomplished" and repeated that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. The post came after Trump said over the weekend that the US had cancelled a planned attack on Iran to pursue a peace deal.
Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baqaei, countered that his country is not in negotiations with the US. "We've been in this situation multiple times before, only to see things unravel," said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Think, and Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist, in a note. "With Iran denying that any talks are underway and Trump issuing warnings if no deal materialises, the backdrop clearly leaves ample room for a renewed escalation."
Beyond the diplomatic noise, supply-side risks persist in the Black Sea. The CPC terminal, which ships Kazakh crude from Russia's coast, has seen more loading activity in recent days after weeks of disruption from Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. Shipowners had been hesitant to call at the terminal amid safety concerns. Flows into the pipeline still appear to be running below normal levels, the ING analysts said.
Other commodities moved modestly higher. August copper futures on the MCX traded at ₹1,357.40, up 0.75% from the previous close. On the NCDEX, August turmeric (farmer polished) contracts edged up 0.35% to ₹22,470, while August guargum futures slipped 0.60% to ₹11,695.
The standoff between Washington and Tehran has been a recurring driver for crude prices, and the latest exchange suggests no quick resolution. The ING analysts noted that the pattern of escalation and denial leaves the market vulnerable to sudden spikes if rhetoric turns into action. For now, flows into the CPC terminal still appear to be running below normal levels, they said.
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