Crude Oil Dips as Iran Denies US Talks, Hormuz Risk Looms

Crude oil futures slipped Tuesday. Iran's foreign ministry dismissed plans for US peace talks in Doha, contradicting an announcement from President Trump.

September Brent crude fell 0.34% to $73.66 a barrel. WTI crude for August delivery lost 0.48% to $70.41. On India's MCX, July crude futures dropped 0.70% to ₹6,681.

Trump posted on Truth Social on Monday that a meeting would take place in Doha on Tuesday, following a request from Iran. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said the opposite. "We will not have any negotiation meetings at any level with the American side in the coming days," Baghaei said, as quoted by Reuters.

The weekend saw US and Iranian strikes on each other's assets in West Asia, ratcheting up tensions. Trump's announcement appeared to signal a diplomatic off-ramp. Iran's denial suggests no such channel is open.

French President Emmanuel Macron said Monday he was working with Oman to de-escalate tensions and would help de-mine the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi responded that mine removal was Iran's responsibility alone, under a 14-point plan.

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly a fifth of global oil consumption. Any disruption there would hit crude prices directly. The market's reaction – a 0.3% decline – is consistent with pricing a low probability of either a diplomatic breakthrough or a blockade. Oil traders have seen this pattern before: headline-driven swings reverse when denials follow.

The contradiction leaves two distinct risks. A deal that lifts sanctions would add supply and push prices lower. A breakdown keeps the risk of military escalation, and with it a potential supply disruption, on the table.

Mentha oil futures on MCX rose 1.56% to ₹1,075.30, an unrelated move driven by domestic demand.

The question of who clears the strait remains unresolved. Without a clear channel for talks, that risk stays on the table.