The ASX 200 rose 43.5 points on Friday, led by a 14% copper surge and bank gains. The weekly loss was just 0.5% despite Middle East tensions. US earnings, Fed testimony, and local data are next in focus.
The Australian sharemarket snapped a four-day losing streak on Friday. The ASX 200 closed up 43.5 points, or 0.5%, at 8806.
Only three of the 11 sectors finished higher. Materials, financials, and real estate – the heavyweights – were enough to lift the whole index.
For the week the benchmark fell just 0.5%. That was a mild outcome given the backdrop: airstrikes, the collapse of the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East, and the reimposition of US oil sanctions on Iran. The mix raises questions about safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, stokes inflation expectations, and keeps rate fears alive.
The day's hero was copper. A 14% jump in the red metal pushed materials stocks higher. South32 (ASX: S32) rose 5.2%. Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) added 3.8% to A$164.49. BHP (ASX: BHP) gained 2.5% to A$58.28. Gold also lifted, drawing buyers worried about inflation. Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) climbed 3.4% to A$11.63.
Uranium got a boost after Australia and India finalised a long-term export agreement. Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) rose 4.1% to A$10.06. Deep Yellow (ASX: DYL) jumped 7.4% to A$1.44.
The banks, another key index weight, came back into favour. National Australia Bank (ASX: NAB) rose 0.8% to A$39.61. Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA) added 0.5% to A$168.86. Westpac (ASX: WBC) rose 0.9% to A$36.54. ANZ (ASX: ANZ) climbed 0.8% to A$36.05.
Energy stocks nudged lower as oil prices held flat. Santos (ASX: STO) fell 0.4% to A$7.62. Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) dropped 0.9% to A$29.05. Beach Energy (ASX: BPT) firmed 0.6% to 88 Australian cents.
The rotation into cyclicals hit defensives. Pro Medicus (ASX: PME), which had rallied 33% over the prior month, fell 6.3% to A$197.07. CSL (ASX: CSL) dropped 2.1% to A$122.89.
Bravura Solutions (ASX: BVS) was a standout, soaring 15.1% to A$2.36 after raising its FY2026 earnings guidance to A$77 million, up from an earlier range of A$69 million to A$73 million.
Ingenia Communities (ASX: INA) slid 0.5% to A$4.34 after confirming talks with Peet over a potential transaction. Peet (ASX: PPC) rose 4.7% to A$1.78.
Sandfire Resources (ASX: SFR) added 3.8% to A$18.83 after extending the planned mine life of its Black Butte copper project in Montana to 12 years, citing a maiden ore reserve at the Lowry deposit.
BHP, which carries an AlphaScala Alpha Score of 66, and Rio Tinto (score 62) are both up on the year, supported by commodity prices. Woodside Energy (score 67) faces a near-term headwind from flat oil prices and a busy earnings calendar ahead.
The escalating conflict in the Middle East remains the dominant risk. The coming week also brings the ramp-up of US second-quarter earnings season. Major US banks report, and expectations are high after financials rallied 16% in recent weeks on bets that rising rates will boost margins. Unlike their Australian peers, US banks can quickly reset mortgage and credit card rates while keeping deposit rates low, a dynamic traders will watch closely.
Airlines will test the travel recovery with their own earnings. The megacap tech companies follow the week after, with consensus calling for second-quarter earnings growth near 50% – a huge chunk of the S&P 500's expected growth.
US CPI data is due, and the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will testify before a government committee. Any hints on the rate path could shift positioning across currencies, rates, and equities.
Locally, inflation expectations, consumer sentiment, and business confidence numbers are scheduled. Earnings updates will come from Ampol, Auckland International Airport, Evolution Mining, Rio Tinto, AMP, BHP, and Netwealth.
Alcoa reports its second-quarter results on Thursday.
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