Coinbase reports equities outperform crypto amid strong earnings data

Coinbase Global Inc. posted Q4 2025 revenue of $1.78 billion, a 22% decline year-over-year. The drop tracks a broader capital rotation: since October 2025, the S&P 500 has climbed 17%, while the total crypto market capitalization has fallen 47.5% to approximately $2.24 trillion as of February 2026. Roughly $2.03 trillion in outflows have drained from crypto assets in that period.

Equities vs. Crypto: The Revenue Divergence

Coinbase’s transaction-fee revenue, still the dominant income source, compressed alongside the decline in trading volumes. The outflows were not a single crash. They represent a sustained capital rotation. Retail and institutional participants reduced crypto exposure. Equity markets absorbed that liquidity.

The Outflow Numbers at a Glance

The 22% revenue decline is the headline number that matters for the investment case. When a company that went public as a pure-play crypto bet posts a drop of that magnitude, the strategic response becomes the central question for shareholders.

Equities as the New Growth Line

Coinbase responded by launching commission-free stock and ETF trading for US users in early 2026. The service integrates through a partnership with Yahoo Finance, signaling an intent to reach beyond the crypto-native audience and into the broader retail investing population.

Tokenized Equities and Perpetuals

The exchange also plans to introduce tokenized US equities and perpetual products, bringing traditional financial instruments onto blockchain rails. Kraken went further on February 24, 2026, introducing what it calls the world’s first regulated tokenized equity perpetual futures, available in over 110 countries with up to 20x leverage.

Practical rule: When a crypto-native exchange launches stock trading, it bets that 24/7 settlement speed and blockchain accessibility can win market share from established brokerages. The risk is that the core crypto user base does not want equities, and the equities user base does not want crypto.

Tokenized equities reduce friction for retail investors who want exposure to traditional markets without settlement delays and restricted trading hours. Kraken’s perpetual product adds leverage, a feature crypto traders expect equity brokers rarely offer.

Competitive Landscape Shifts

Coinbase and Kraken now compete directly with brokerages such as Fidelity and Interactive Brokers Group Inc. (IBKR) . Interactive Brokers carries an Alpha Score of 72/100 (Moderate, sector Financial Services) on AlphaScala’s proprietary model, reflecting its diversified revenue base across equities, options, futures, and forex. Coinbase’s equities pivot puts it in IBKR’s lane without the decades of infrastructure and institutional trust.

IBKR’s Diversified Advantage

Interactive Brokers derives revenue from multiple asset classes and margin lending, not solely from transaction fees. Its Alpha Score of 72 reflects that diversification. Coinbase’s revenue concentration in crypto transaction fees makes it more vulnerable to sector downturns. The equities product is a hedge. It will take time to generate comparable volume.

Signals That Confirm or Weaken the Thesis

The stock’s direction depends on whether the equities pivot generates enough revenue to offset the crypto decline before the next catalyst.

Confirms the thesis:

• Monthly active users for the equities product exceed internal targets.
• Tokenized equity perpetuals gain traction with institutional clients.
• Crypto market cap stabilizes or rebounds above $3 trillion.

Weakens the thesis:

• The equities product fails to attract meaningful volume from Fidelity or IBKR.
• Regulatory pushback delays tokenized equity launches.
• Crypto outflows accelerate further, compressing remaining transaction revenue.

The Better Market Read

The naive interpretation is that Coinbase is following the money into equities. The better market read is that the exchange is solving a structural problem: its core revenue driver depends on an asset class that lost nearly half its value in four months. The equities pivot is a survival move, not a growth move. It buys time. It does not guarantee a crypto cycle turnaround.

For traders watching the crypto market analysis page on AlphaScala, the key metric is the ratio of Coinbase’s equities trading volume to its crypto trading volume. If that ratio crosses 1:1 within two quarters, the company’s valuation will start to look like a diversified broker rather than a pure crypto exchange. That changes the comp set and the multiples investors apply.

Coinbase’s Q4 earnings confirm that the crypto winter is a revenue event, not just a price event. The equities pivot is the most concrete response yet. It also introduces execution risk in a market where incumbents like IBKR and Fidelity already dominate. The next quarter will show whether the pivot is a hedge or a lifeline. For those evaluating crypto broker options, the best crypto brokers page provides a comparative view.