Coffee Chains Win as Pizza Fades in Restaurant Spending Divide

Coffee and snack chains are running away with restaurant spending growth in 2026. Starbucks, Dunkin', Dutch Bros, and 7 Brew have pushed the category up nearly 6% year-to-date, according to Consumer Edge's newly published Restaurant 2026 Mid-Year Outlook. Diners are swapping full meals for specialty coffee and snacks that feel like affordable luxuries.

Pizza is the biggest loser so far. Health-conscious customers are ditching large shareable orders for lighter options, hitting Papa John's and Pizza Hut. The divide runs deeper than one category. Mid-tier restaurants without a clear value or premium pitch are losing ground fast.

“Consumers are spending differently in 2026 as they reprioritize how to spend their food budget amid a shifting economic environment,” said Michael Gunther, SVP of Research & Market Intelligence at Consumer Edge. “For restaurant leaders, the question isn’t just where spend is going, it’s whether their pricing, menu and strategy are built for consumers that are actually walking through the door today.”

Aggressive value campaigns from McDonald's and Burger King have pulled price-sensitive diners back. Fast-casual concepts like Chipotle and Cava win on menu innovation and fair pricing. The data also flags a fuel-price squeeze: brands like Hardee's, Golden Corral, and Waffle House skew toward car-dependent customers and face outsized risk as gas rises.

Age is another fault line. Diners aged 25-34 show the weakest spending growth across both full and limited-service segments. Those 65 and older are proving most resilient, suggesting younger households feel the budget pressure most acutely. These patterns look structural, not temporary. Home cooking, healthier options, and snack-based dining occasions are reshaping how restaurant dollars flow.

Our Alpha Score rates MCD at 50 and SBUX at 41, both marked Mixed within Consumer Discretionary.

The full mid-year report from Consumer Edge, founded in 2009 by CEO Bill Pecoriello, provides transaction-based intelligence on product and brand performance across sub-industries.