Cleveland-Cliffs EBITDA More Than Doubles, Sees $1 Billion 2027 Boost
Cleveland-Cliffs reported Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $612M, more than double Q2, and guided Q4 to $715M. The company expects over $1B in EBITDA growth from 2027 contracts.
Alpha Score of 40 reflects weak overall profile with moderate momentum, poor value, moderate quality, moderate sentiment.
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) posted Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $612 million, more than double the $286 million it reported in the second quarter, and said it expects Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $715 million, roughly $100 million higher. The steelmaker also told investors it has secured contract terms for 2027 that would deliver over $1 billion in year-over-year EBITDA improvement.
The results beat expectations, Seaport Research Partners analyst Josh Kaplan said. The guidance points to “further upside,” he added, citing the contract wins and the company’s cost outlook.
Cleveland-Cliffs postponed the reline of its Burns Harbor C blast furnace to April 2028, deferring a major capital outlay. The company mines and processes iron ore and supplies flat-rolled steel to North American automakers, construction firms and energy companies. Its market capitalisation stands at $8.06 billion.
The steelmaker remains unprofitable on a trailing basis and generates negative free cash flow, which limits the value of its price-to-earnings multiple. Its price-to-sales ratio of 0.39 sits below both the three-year median of 0.63 and the steel industry median, suggesting the market is pricing in margin pressure. GuruFocus’ GF Value metric, which relies on historical multiples and growth assumptions, pegs intrinsic value at $11.48 a share, 23% below the current price of $14.12.
Cleveland-Cliffs scores 77 out of 100 on the GF Score composite that weights financial strength, profitability, growth, valuation and momentum. The company’s financial strength rank is just 3 out of 10, driven by an Altman Z-Score of 1.28, a level that signals bankruptcy risk, and $3.6 billion in cumulative debt issuance over three years. Growth ranks 6 out of 10.
Insiders sold $42.2 million worth of CLF shares over the past 12 months while buying just $0.2 million, a contrast with nine tracked gurus who held positions, four of whom added to their stakes in recent quarters.
Cleveland-Cliffs’ Q4 adjusted EBITDA forecast of $715 million would be a sequential increase. The company expects the majority of the 2027 EBITDA improvement to come from the completed contract negotiations. More detail is available on the CLF stock page.
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