Senate delays push CLARITY Act vote to next week, leaving days before recess. Prediction market odds drop to 37% as ethics disputes and bank concerns mount.
Alpha Score of 61 reflects moderate overall profile with moderate momentum, moderate value, moderate quality, moderate sentiment.
The CLARITY Act faces a tighter Senate schedule after lawmakers turned their attention to nominations and a Russia sanctions bill. Senate leaders may not return to the crypto measure until next week, leaving just a few working days before the August 8 recess. Supporters still expect a vote, but unresolved disputes limit the path forward.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture on federal nominations, shifting focus away from the crypto bill. The chamber will spend the coming days confirming nominees before moving to Republican priorities. The Senate also plans to consider H.R. 5334, the legislative vehicle for the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026. Each step reduces the time available for crypto legislation.
The bill has remained on the Senate calendar since early June. Lawmakers have delayed action while negotiating ethics rules, stablecoin yield concerns, and enforcement powers. The crypto industry wants the Senate to finish before the recess. Another delay could push the debate into a later session.
Democratic senators want stronger ethics provisions covering public officials with financial interests in digital assets. Some lawmakers oppose giving the Department of Justice sole authority over enforcement. They want state prosecutors to retain power when cases involve local investors or state laws.
Banks have raised concerns about stablecoin yield products. They argue that interest-bearing digital assets could pull deposits away from traditional lenders. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon has backed the CLARITY Act as the fight over stablecoin rewards intensifies. Thune acknowledged pressure from banks over yield and other issues. He said the Senate needs a fair amendment process.
New York Attorney General Letitia James has urged Congress to reject the bill. She argues that the measure could weaken state and local action against crypto fraud.
Prediction market traders now give the CLARITY Act a 37% chance of becoming law during 2026. The market has dropped sharply from earlier levels near 60% and 75%. Recent delays, ethics disputes, and the crowded Senate calendar have driven the decline. The contract has recorded more than $2.8 million in trading volume. The move shows rising doubt about passage before year-end.
A Senate vote before August 8 could improve those odds. Both chambers must resolve remaining differences before President Donald Trump can sign it.
The bill would divide oversight among federal agencies. The CFTC would supervise digital commodities, while the SEC would oversee investment contract assets. Supporters say this structure would give exchanges, developers, and investors clearer standards across the United States.
Franklin Templeton publicly backed the CLARITY Act on July 28. The asset manager said the bill would define regulatory roles and set investor protection standards. The bill would clarify which agency supervises each digital asset category. The firm argued that companies need stable rules before they can build compliant crypto products. Franklin Templeton said uncertainty over SEC and CFTC authority has slowed planning across the sector. Its support places a financial company behind the bill as Senate leaders weigh the next step.
Senate leaders had not announced a vote date. The clock is running.
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