Crypto▼ Bearish
CLARITY Act's 2026 Passage Odds Plunge to 10% on Senate Gridlock
No Senate vote is scheduled before August recess; crypto policy now rests with SEC and CFTC rulemaking. The SEC's agenda session was canceled without a new date.
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The CLARITY Act's path through the Senate keeps narrowing. One industry research estimate now puts the bill's chance of passage in 2026 at 10%, a sharp drop from the far more optimistic read earlier this year.
Lawmakers are not expected to vote before the August recess. Unresolved political fights sit behind the slowdown. The remaining session days are thin, and the market-structure bill would need to jump to the top of the Senate's priority list on return to have a realistic window.
Congress is stalled. The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are the institutions now shaping crypto policy. The SEC has been exploring tailored rules for crypto offerings, an effort that could resolve some of the regulatory questions the legislation was meant to answer.
The effort hit turbulence. An anticipated SEC discussion of its crypto regulatory agenda was reportedly called off just before commissioners were due to meet. The agency cited scheduling issues. The cancellation deepened uncertainty over when the rules land and how far they reach.