
CLARITY Act stalls as Senate nears recess with no floor vote. Prediction markets see 26% to 31% chance before break. Lummis blames partisan gridlock.
The US Senate gavels in at 3 PM today for what is likely the last full session week before the summer recess. The CLARITY Act, the crypto market structure bill that has sat on the Senate Legislative Calendar since June 1, still has no scheduled floor vote. Lawmakers are not due back until September 14.
Majority Leader John Thune said last month the bill would get a vote before the break. That promise remains unfulfilled. Prediction markets show little confidence. Kalshi puts the chance of a Senate vote before recess at 26%. Polymarket pegs it at 31%.
The bill needs 60 votes to pass. Republicans hold 53 seats, so at least seven Democrats must support it.
Senator Cynthia Lummis, a Wyoming Republican and longtime crypto advocate, attributed the delay to politics. She posted on X last week:
“Dems finally saying the quiet part out loud: it’s not about protecting consumers from scams or ensuring businesses and jobs stay in America, it’s about hurting Trump by any means necessary – no matter who becomes collateral damage.”
Lummis specifically named Senator Elizabeth Warren, the Massachusetts Democrat and crypto critic, accusing her of preferring “no rules of the road for the digital asset industry” over giving President Trump a win. The quote came from the same X post.
Without a bill, the SEC and CFTC could act through rulemaking. That path is easier to reverse than a statute. Some digital asset firms are already relocating to friendlier jurisdictions, Lummis said, citing reports. For context on the legislative odds, see the CLARITY Act odds sink to 27% after Senate delays crypto bill coverage.
The bill could be revived in September when the Senate returns on the 14th. Whether it reaches the floor then is uncertain. The delay has already drawn warnings about the US losing its crypto lead, as covered in CLARITY Act delay risks US crypto lead, Haridopolos warns.
The Senate returns September 14.
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