Galaxy Research cut the CLARITY Act's 2026 passage probability to 30%. The prediction market now prices a 36.5% chance, down from 42% a week ago. The Senate floor vote remains unscheduled.
Alpha Score of 64 reflects moderate overall profile with strong momentum, moderate value, moderate quality, moderate sentiment.
Galaxy Research dropped its estimate of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 30%, down from 50%. The firm cited the 60-vote Senate filibuster threshold and a tightening legislative calendar.
Prediction markets are pricing a 36.5% chance of enactment by year-end, down from 42% a week ago. The decline follows months of stalled progress since the bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May 2026.
The CLARITY Act passed the House in 2025. It would assign clear regulatory roles for digital assets to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission, resolving a long-running jurisdictional turf war. No floor vote has been scheduled in the full Senate.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon publicly backed the Act, saying banks need a federal stablecoin framework to compete. His support, reported alongside separate industry lobbying, has not broken the logjam. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott control the calendar.
A failure to pass the CLARITY Act this year would leave U.S. crypto regulation in its current state: token classification by enforcement action, no comprehensive framework for exchanges, and the SEC’s litigation-driven approach intact. Passage would unlock institutional adoption by clarifying which assets are commodities and which are securities.
The prediction market assigns a 36.5% probability to enactment by the end of 2026.
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