Clarity Act odds slip to 24.5%; Toomey pushes Senate vote

The Senate calendar is the immediate hurdle. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has not scheduled a vote. Republicans Tim Scott and Cynthia Lummis are key voices; their public positions could shift momentum. President Trump has not weighed in recently, but an endorsement or veto threat would move the odds.

A delay past this week would likely push action into the fall, when election-year politics could complicate passage. The 24.5% probability suggests traders see a low chance of near-term success, even with Toomey's urging.

For context, earlier this year the odds peaked near 40% after the House vote. The steady decline since reflects a string of Senate delays and competing priorities. The next clear catalyst is a floor vote announcement, which would either revive the bill or confirm its stalled status.

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