Crypto▼ Bearish
CLARITY Act odds sink to 27% after Senate delays crypto bill
CLARITY Act odds fell to 27% on PolyMarket after the Senate skipped the crypto bill Tuesday. Without a cloture motion, a vote before the August recess looks unlikely.
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The U.S. Senate did not include the CLARITY Act on its Tuesday schedule, leaving the crypto market structure bill in limbo even as Majority Leader John Thune said he expects a vote before the August recess.
Senators reconvened at 10:00 a.m. ET Tuesday, then adjourned until 2:15 p.m. for leadership remarks. The chamber instead spent the day on a Continuing Resolution and nominations, including Erica Schwartz to lead the CDC and a package of 74 en bloc appointments.
The absence of a cloture motion for H.R. 3633 – the procedural step needed before debate and a final vote – is the biggest hurdle. Without it, the bill cannot advance.
PolyMarket bettors have responded. The contract for "CLARITY Act passes Senate in 2025" dropped from 33% to 27% by Tuesday evening, its lowest since the bill cleared the House Financial Services Committee in June.