Crypto▲ Bullish
CLARITY Act odds sink to 15.5% on Lummis vote call
Senator Lummis expects a CLARITY Act vote before recess. Prediction market odds tell a different story: they tumbled to 15.5%, down from 26%. Legislative path unclear.
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Senator Cynthia Lummis said she expects the Senate to vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess. The prediction market for the bill becoming law by the end of 2026 tells a different story: odds fell to 15.5% for a YES outcome, down from 26% the day before.
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 would split oversight of digital assets between the SEC and the CFTC, giving the CFTC primary authority over most crypto spot markets. The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee on a 15-9 vote, making it the most advanced U.S. crypto bill in years. It has drawn support from crypto industry groups that view the CFTC as a lighter touch than the SEC.
Market observers said Lummis's comments suggested legislative momentum. The market priced in the opposite direction. Traders tracking the Vera prediction market said the August recess timeline leaves little room for floor time. Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer control the calendar. Neither has publicly committed to a vote date. Scott, a Republican, and Schumer, a Democrat, would need to agree on scheduling and any amendments.