CLARITY Act Odds Sink as White House Pushes September Vote

The White House is pressing the Senate to move the CLARITY Act when lawmakers return from the August recess. Patrick Witt, the administration's crypto adviser, told reporters the White House remains “fully committed” to passing the market structure bill. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has filed cloture on the motion to proceed, setting a procedural vote for September 15. The motion needs 60 votes to advance. Republicans hold 53 seats.

Passage estimates have fallen sharply in recent weeks. TD Cowen Washington Research Group analyst Jaret Seiberg assigns a 75% probability that the bill will fail to become law this fall. His firm puts the chance of enactment at 25%. Polymarket traders now price a 19% chance that the CLARITY Act will become law in 2026. That market has dropped from levels above 50% during much of the spring, when the bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee on a 15-9 vote.

Witt said the administration wants Congress to finish work on the CLARITY Act and urged Democrats to keep negotiating before the September vote. He argued lawmakers need durable legislation for digital assets and said the administration would keep its door open through the recess.

The bill faces a thicket of disputes even if the cloture vote succeeds. Disagreements over ethics rules, anti-money-laundering provisions and stablecoin rewards have drawn opposition from both parties. Community bank groups argue that stablecoin rewards could pull deposits away from local lenders. Senator Cynthia Lummis has pushed back, saying recent deposit data does not support claims of widespread deposit flight. The current bill limits interest or yield on stablecoin balances.