CLARITY Act Odds Hit 53% After Lummis Confirms July Text Release

The prediction market moved first. Polymarket odds for CLARITY Act passage crossed 50% this week and settled at 53%.

Senator Cynthia Lummis told Fox Business the final text of the bill will be released over the July 4 recess. “We’ve been negotiating on the CLARITY Act hardcore since last Labor Day,” she said. Lummis described the process as arduous. The bill accounts for feedback from the banking industry and lessons from the earlier GENIUS Act debates, she said.

“We’re finally to the point where we’re going to put out a text over the July 4th and give people one last really thorough look at the bill,” Lummis said. “And then we’re moving in July.”

Talks are underway with Senate leadership, including Senator John Thune, to secure floor time this summer, Lummis confirmed.

The law enforcement shift

The bill gained ground from another direction. The Major County Sheriffs of America moved from opposition to neutral on the decentralized finance clause of the CLARITY Act. MCSA had been the first law enforcement group to publicly oppose the DeFi provisions. That reversal undid a headwind that had pushed odds lower earlier in the week.

What Section 301 does

Lummis addressed industry concerns directly. She pointed to Section 301, which closes a perceived anti-money laundering loophole. The revision ensures crypto rewards programs are not classified as interest-bearing banking offerings when the rewards are not based on customer account balances.

That distinction solves a specific compliance problem. If rewards counted as interest, crypto platforms offering staking or yield products would face bank-level restrictions. Lummis framed the fix as a targeted carve-out, not a loophole.

The Dimon exchange

Lummis also pushed back on JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, who has criticised the bill. “With all due respect, Mr. Dimon is mistaken about the CLARITY Act. He needs to read it over July 4th,” she said.

What a summer vote would mean

The CLARITY Act is a market-structure bill. It creates a federal framework for crypto regulation that includes rules for decentralized finance. A Senate vote this summer would be the first major crypto legislation to clear that chamber.

The Polymarket contract on President Donald Trump signing the legislation into law this year had dipped earlier in the week. It recovered after the MCSA shift and Lummis’s comments. The market now prices about a 53% chance of enactment by year-end.

The July 4 text release is the next concrete milestone. After that, the public comment period runs through July. A floor vote could come as early as late July, Lummis indicated.