Senate Majority Leader John Thune said the legislative calendar makes a CLARITY Act vote difficult before the August 7 recess. Galaxy Research puts odds at 30%.
Alpha Score of 64 reflects moderate overall profile with strong momentum, moderate value, moderate quality, moderate sentiment.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters the legislative calendar makes a vote on the CLARITY Act difficult before the August 7 recess. His assessment rattled market expectations for the bill's timeline.
Kristin Smith, chief executive of the Blockchain Association, disagreed. She said on X that the comments did not reflect the current state of play. "There is a clear path to pass the Clarity Act before the recess on August 7 – and we must seize it," Smith wrote.
Galaxy Digital's head of research, Alex Thorn, put the bill's approval odds at 30%. The remaining legislative window will require a last-ditch push to gather the necessary votes, according to Galaxy's analysis.
Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana, a Republican backer of the bill, described a pre-recess vote as decisive. Postponing past August 7 could materially reduce the chances of reaching final consensus, Kennedy said.
The updated text has picked up support from unexpected quarters. The National Fraternal Order of Police endorsed the latest version after changes to provisions linked to the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon confirmed his support for the legislation. He called a defined legal framework essential for banks to enter digital asset markets. Solomon acknowledged the bill "is not perfect" but backed moving it forward.
Traditional banking associations continue to oppose the bill, lobbying against the redistribution of financial oversight authorities. A group of Democratic senators who generally support crypto policy rejected the July 22 draft, warning that its enforcement language could give the Justice Department too much leeway.
Senate committees are holding bilateral talks ahead of the August 7 deadline. The outcome hinges on whether remaining disagreements over market structure and enforcement can be resolved in time for a floor vote.
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