Jefferies warns crypto volatility looms as CLARITY Act Senate odds fall from 70% to 48% on Polymarket. The bill passed the House and Senate committee; it still needs a full vote.
Alpha Score of 34 reflects weak overall profile with poor momentum, poor value, weak quality, strong sentiment.
Jefferies warned that crypto markets face rising volatility. The odds of the CLARITY Act passing the Senate by the end of 2026 have dropped sharply, according to Polymarket. The prediction market's probability fell from 70% in mid-May to 48%. The bill, which cleared the House and the Senate Banking Committee, would define the roles of the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over digital assets.
Without it, the regulatory patchwork continues. Jefferies said companies like Coinbase and Circle face prolonged uncertainty. Coinbase's exchange business hangs on whether the SEC classifies additional tokens as securities. Circle's stablecoin operations depend on clear federal rules for payment stablecoins, a separate part of the regulatory debate.
The bank did not name specific tokens at risk. The warning comes with the crypto market already under pressure from Fed rate expectations and slowing retail interest. A failed CLARITY Act would extend a cycle of SEC enforcement actions and legal battles, Jefferies said.
Other jurisdictions have moved ahead with their own frameworks. The UK recently proposed crypto rules to attract business, and the European Union's MiCA regime took effect last year. The U.S. delay risks ceding ground to those markets, industry groups have said.
The bill's Senate path is unclear. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has not scheduled a floor vote. With the 2026 midterms approaching, legislative time is scarce. The 48% Polymarket price implies traders expect the bill to stall. That still leaves room for a surprise if a bipartisan compromise emerges.
What would turn the odds? An endorsement from a key senator or a narrower bill that gets cross-party support. What would sink them further? A new SEC action against a major exchange, or a change in committee leadership. The baseline is pessimism.
Polymarket's contract for the bill passing before Dec. 31, 2026 trades at 48 cents. No date has been set for a Senate floor vote.
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