MSTR at $100, COIN at $150, Metaplanet at ¥200. The cluster of support tests raises a question only a Bitcoin break can answer. Proprietary Alpha Scores sit at 28 and 34 (Weak).
Three crypto-linked equities are testing support in the same week. Strategy (MSTR) sits near $100. Coinbase (COIN) is defending $150. Metaplanet, the Japanese hotel operator turned Bitcoin treasury play, hovers just above ¥200. Each level has held for months. The cluster of simultaneous tests forces a question that is not about any single stock: is the floor structural, or just slow to break?
The common thread is Bitcoin. Strategy holds more than 200,000 BTC on its balance sheet, funded largely through convertible debt. Coinbase generates a material slice of its revenue from spot trading and custody fees tied to crypto activity. Metaplanet adopted a Bitcoin treasury strategy in 2024 and the stock rallied sharply before giving back most of those gains. Bitcoin has been range-bound around $70,000 for weeks. That has drained momentum from the names that track it. When BTC does break, these stocks tend to move faster because of the leverage embedded in their balance sheets or business models.
Strategy's $100 level is a round number that has acted as support since the post-2024 halving correction. The next major floor below that sits near $85, based on the stock's reaction to past Bitcoin drawdowns. Coinbase's $150 support is more recent. The stock fell to that level in January after a weak Q4 earnings preview and has bounced twice. Exchange revenue is tied to spot volumes, which have been subdued since November. Metaplanet's ¥200 level is the most fragile. That is the price where the stock traded before the company announced its Bitcoin treasury strategy. A break there would erase the entire premium.
The source material provides AlphaScala's own risk scores. MSTR has an Alpha Score of 28 out of 100, labeled Weak. COIN scores 34, also Weak. Both scores reflect the stocks' sensitivity to Bitcoin's next move and the lack of a fundamental catalyst beyond the cryptocurrency itself.
The simple read is that all three are oversold and range-bound, making a bounce the higher-probability bet. The better market read is that the support levels are holding only because Bitcoin is quiet. A sharp move in BTC either way will resolve the test. If Bitcoin breaks above $75,000, these stocks should follow, with Strategy and Metaplanet leading because of their higher beta. If Bitcoin falls below $68,000, the support levels will likely break. The confirming signal for the longs is a bounce in Bitcoin above $72,000 paired with rising volumes on Coinbase. The invalidating signal is a daily close below $100 for MSTR, $150 for COIN, or ¥200 for Metaplanet on above-average volume.
For context, the COIN stock page and MSTR stock page track the individual names. A broader crypto market analysis page covers the macro backdrop. The Alpha Scores of 28 and 34 both sit in the Weak zone. Until Bitcoin shows a clear direction, these stocks are best watched from the sidelines.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.