Galaxy Research cut its passage estimate to 50% while Trump's $1.4 billion crypto income and ethics criticism clouded Senate timing.
Alpha Score of 46 reflects weak overall profile with weak momentum, weak value, moderate quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals – score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
CLARITY Act odds have fallen below 40% on prediction markets, a sign that Washington's crypto market-structure push is losing steam. Traders now see less than a coin-flip chance the bill becomes law in 2026. The drop followed President Donald Trump's latest financial disclosure, which showed $1.4 billion in crypto-linked income last year and drew fresh ethics criticism.
Trump reported roughly $800 million from World Liberty Financial, the venture he co-founded with his sons, and $635 million from Trump-branded meme coin revenue, according to filings reviewed by multiple outlets. The White House denied any conflict and defended the administration's crypto policy agenda. Yet the disclosure gave ammunition to critics who argue the President has a direct financial stake in the outcome of crypto legislation.
Former Trump White House lawyer Ty Cobb called the situation an "unprecedented corruption concern" on CNN. His remarks amplified a growing ethics debate that is now bleeding into the legislative calendar. Senate Democrats have already questioned whether officials who hold digital-asset positions should be shaping the rules. The pushback could complicate floor negotiations, even among lawmakers who generally support a legal framework for tokens.
The CLARITY Act advanced out of the Senate Banking Committee in May on a party-line vote with two Democratic defections. The bill aims to define when a crypto token is a security or a commodity, set rules for stablecoin rewards, mandate anti-money-laundering controls, and clarify DeFi and tokenized securities treatment. The calendar is tight. The Senate has not yet merged its version with the Agriculture Committee's companion bill, and several amendments remain unresolved before the August recess.
Galaxy Research cut its 2026 passage estimate to 50% this month, down from 60% in June and 75% earlier this year. Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of research, said the primary pressure is timing, not substance. "The bill still needs floor debate, amendments, Senate Agriculture reconciliation, and House action," Galaxy wrote. Those are a lot of steps before August.
Joseph Chalom, a former BlackRock digital-assets executive, put the odds of passage by July 4 at below 50% in a recent post. He still expects the CLARITY Act to become law before year-end, possibly before the August break. He warned that regulatory rulemaking can be reversed more easily than legislation, making the bill's survival dependent on the current political window. Chalom also flagged Asia as a competitive risk. South Korea and Hong Kong are watching the U.S. process, he said. Delays in Washington could push those governments to adopt rival frameworks faster, weakening America's bid to lead on crypto rules.
The bill needs a merged Senate text and a motion to proceed before the recess. If those steps do not come in July, the debate slides to September.
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