Clarity Act odds cut to 30% as Senate shelves bill until fall

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has shelved the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act until after the August recess, prioritizing nominations and Russia sanctions over what was expected to be the year's biggest crypto market structure bill. Galaxy Research cut the odds of passage to 30%, down from 50% a month ago. The firm cited the narrowing legislative window, saying it would take a "last-ditch effort" to get the bill through before the political calendar makes passage functionally impossible until 2026.

Not long ago the CLARITY Act had real momentum. The House passed its version, H.R. 3633, with a bipartisan vote of 294-134 on July 17, 2025. Senate committees approved related measures in early 2026. Then the calendar got crowded. Thune's decision means no serious floor debate until September at the earliest.

The bill's latest draft includes an ethics provision with a sunset clause set for 2029, designed to limit public officials from engaging in activities tied to digital assets while in office. Key Democratic senators said the measure falls short on ethics enforcement, illicit finance safeguards, and consumer protections.

Partisan tensions around former President Trump's digital asset holdings have made the ethics debate thornier. Democrats see the bill as potentially creating favorable conditions for politically connected crypto ventures. Republicans argue the ethics additions are poison pills designed to kill a bill the industry needs.

Major financial firms including BlackRock, Fidelity, and Goldman Sachs all affirmed their backing for the legislation at the end of July, right as it became clear the bill was headed for the shelf. Without a clear market structure framework, these firms are stuck navigating SEC enforcement actions, CFTC jurisdictional claims, and state-level rules that sometimes contradict each other.

The broader risk is that the US continues ceding regulatory leadership to jurisdictions like the EU, which implemented its MiCA framework while American lawmakers argue about sunset clauses.

Two signals matter. First, whether any Democratic senators break from their caucus to support the revised draft. Second, whether Thune creates a specific floor time commitment for the fall session. Without a concrete date, September can become never.