The Senate prioritized Russia sanctions and nominations over the Clarity Act, sending odds to a new low of 27%. A bipartisan ethics counteroffer is headed to the White House, but bank lobbying on stablecoin yields may slow progress.
The Clarity Act's odds of passage in 2026 fell to 27% on the Polymarket prediction market, a new low, after the Senate sidelined the bill to vote on the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026 and Trump's federal nominations.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture on the Russia sanctions bill, narrowing the legislative window before the August 8 recess. The Senate has not scheduled a vote on the Clarity Act.
A bipartisan group of senators is working to keep the bill alive. Democrat Ruben Gallego and Republican Thom Tillis are finalizing language on an ethics counteroffer to send to the White House. Tillis said the proposal would allow state attorneys general to enforce ethics provisions, not just the Department of Justice. The goal is to send the counteroffer to the White House in the next few days.
Bank lobbying over stablecoin yield provisions may slow the process, Tillis said. Industry participants said it is important for the Senate to begin the cloture process before the recess to keep the bill viable.
Several Wall Street firms endorsed the Clarity Act. BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Franklin Templeton, Fidelity, Charles Schwab, and SoFi all supported it. Senator Cynthia Lummis rejected the idea that Wall Street is uniformly opposed.
“The Big Bank Lobby is trying to say that all of Wall Street is opposed to the Clarity Act. That's completely false,” Lummis said.
The Consumer Technology Association, the largest U.S. tech trade group, urged Congress to pass the bill. “The longer we delay, the more investment moves elsewhere. Capital flows to jurisdictions with clearer rules. America loses jobs and leadership,” the CTA said.
SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the agency can write crypto rules without the bill. “I am committed to supporting Congress in advancing the CLARITY Act, including providing technical assistance,” Atkins said.
Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz lowered the odds of passage to 30% in recent weeks, according to reports. The Polymarket odds have since fallen further.
Goldman Sachs, with an Alpha Score of 59, and Charles Schwab, at 63, are among the financial firms backing the bill. Both are rated Moderate. Goldman CEO David Solomon has backed the CLARITY Act as banks fight over stablecoin rules. The Senate's delay has raised concerns about the U.S. losing its lead in crypto, as Haridopolos warned.
The Senate returns in September. The election-season calendar leaves limited room for crypto legislation. A bill that fails to pass before the August recess faces an uncertain path.
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