CLARITY Act 2026 Odds Slip to 16% With Senate Recess Days Away

Polymarket traders lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 16% on Tuesday, the lowest reading since the contract opened. The odds have fallen from a peak of 75% in February, with the decline accelerating in late July as the Senate calendar narrowed.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune did not file cloture on the bill Tuesday. Under Senate rules, a cloture petition must sit for one calendar day before the chamber votes. Even if filed Wednesday, the process could consume several days without unanimous consent to shorten debate. The Senate's published schedule lists August 7 as the last working day before the summer state work period, which runs from August 10 through September 11.

Thune said earlier this month he wanted to start the process even if senators could not finish the bill. A delayed start pushes the measure into September, when election activity and other legislative priorities compete for floor time. Senate rules require 60 votes to end debate on most legislation. Republicans hold 53 seats, so the bill needs support from several Democrats.

Negotiators still face unresolved differences on several provisions. Ethics rules for lawmakers trading crypto, stablecoin yield treatments, consumer safeguards, and illicit-finance controls remain open. Those disputes narrow the window for a deal before senators leave Washington.