China Seen Profiting From US Forever War, Taiwan Blockade – Mills

The bigger prize for Beijing is Taiwan. Mills contends China can starve the island into submission within nine months via a blockade, using its anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities to keep the US Navy at bay. Taiwan imports 97% of its energy and 70% of its food. The People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force operates intermediate-range ballistic missiles like the DF-26, with a strike radius of 3,000 to 4,000 kilometers, designed to target carriers and bases such as Guam.

China’s dominance in critical minerals adds another layer of risk. Beijing controls roughly 69% of rare earth mining output and up to 90% of processing and magnet production. Recent export bans block the sale of extraction and magnetic manufacturing technologies to foreign military suppliers, Mills notes. Allied defense supply chains for tungsten (83% of global extraction), graphite (79%), and titanium (69%) are uniquely vulnerable.

For investors, the key risks are concentrated in shipping lanes, energy supply, and rare earths. A prolonged blockage in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf would hit crude and LNG tankers hardest. A Taiwan blockade would disrupt over $6 trillion in trade, including semiconductors, metals, and agricultural inputs. The CSIS estimates that the US has already used roughly 30% of its Tomahawk missiles, nearly half of its Patriot interceptors, and at least half of its THAAD interceptors in the Iran conflict – raising questions about readiness in the Pacific.

"China will either emerge as a regional peacemaker or let the US fall on its sword," Mills wrote. The ongoing strain on US missile inventories and defense budgets is a structural constraint that Beijing is watching closely.