
China's PPI slowed to 3.5% in July as oil costs eased from war highs. Consumer inflation also cooled, reopening deflation concerns. Iran-Oman talks progress.
China's factory-gate inflation eased for the first time since the Iran war began in late February. The producer price index rose 3.5% in July from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said Sunday. That came in below the 4.1% gain recorded in June and missed economist expectations.
Consumer inflation also decelerated. The CPI rose 0.5% in July, down from 1% the prior month. The core measure, which strips out food and energy, eased to 0.9% from 1%.
The data suggest the cost shock from higher global oil prices is starting to fade. Crude fluctuated wildly through June and July, but average costs still fell from their peak earlier this year. China had emerged from a record bout of deflation only to face new price pressures from the war. Now those pressures are receding.
A divergence in profits has opened up between upstream and downstream sectors. Industries like clothes-making are seeing earnings plunge. Energy producers, by contrast, are enjoying soaring profits. Sluggish domestic consumer spending has limited how much factories can pass on higher production costs for oil, chips and metals.
US President Donald Trump said this week that negotiations between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz are "moving along." Tehran said it is "very close" to a deal with Oman on a new maritime transit route in the strait. The Islamic Republic renewed a list of demands for the US to agree to before the waterway would open.
Many economists have warned that persistent deflationary pressures in China could harm long-term growth. A slowdown in headline price gauges could reignite those concerns. The return of healthy inflation after the oil shock may still be a long way off.
For traders tracking the crude market, the easing of China's input costs removes one source of demand-side support. But with Iran talks progressing, supply-side risk premiums are also thinning. The next concrete marker is whether the Strait of Hormuz deal materializes before the September OPEC+ meeting.
Related: crude oil profile | commodities analysis
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