Charter Communications: Bear Case Harder to Dismiss at 35 Alpha Score

The bear case on Charter Communications (CHTR) has become harder to dismiss. The stock has lagged the broader market. AlphaScala's Alpha Score of 35/100 places CHTR in the bottom quartile of covered stocks. That score does not guarantee a decline. It signals that the risk/reward profile is skewed against holders.

The simple read is that bears point to high leverage and cord-cutting. The better market read is that the Alpha Score captures a deterioration in fundamentals that the market has not fully priced in. The score aggregates momentum, valuation, growth, and earnings quality. For a capital-intensive company in the Communication Services sector, a score this low typically correlates with negative momentum and weak earnings revisions. The bear case leans on this data: the stock is not cheap enough to be a value play, and it is not growing fast enough to be a growth play.

CHTR's 35/100 Alpha Score: What It Captures

The 35/100 rating is labeled Mixed. That label is a polite way of saying the stock lacks a clear bullish catalyst. The score factors that matter for near-term price direction are all pointing lower. A score this low often precedes a period of underperformance for cable operators. The market has not yet fully discounted the risk of accelerating subscriber losses or a debt load that limits strategic flexibility. The Alpha Score is a forward-looking composite. It does not predict the exact timing of a selloff. It does tell holders that the odds are stacked against them until something changes.

Cord-Cutting and Leverage: The Timeline Risk

The bear thesis on CHTR centers on linear TV subscriber losses and a heavy debt load from the Time Warner Cable acquisition. These are well-known risks. The timeline matters. The next quarterly report will be a key test. If subscriber losses accelerate or if free cash flow misses expectations, the stock could break below recent support levels. Conversely, if Charter shows stabilization in broadband subscribers or announces a debt reduction plan, the bear case weakens. The Alpha Score will update after earnings. A move above 50 would be the first sign of a shift.

What Would Confirm or Break the Setup

A confirmation of the bear case would be a break below the $300 level on volume. That move would likely coincide with a downward revision to full-year guidance. Such an event would push the Alpha Score into the 20s. A break of the bear case requires a catalyst: a large buyback announcement, a surprise subscriber add quarter, or a strategic pivot like a mobile virtual network operator deal that improves margins. Until one of those appears, the 35 Alpha Score is a warning light, not a buy signal.

For holders, the next decision point is the earnings call. The risk event is not a single headline. It is a slow bleed of confidence in the cable model. The Alpha Score is already reflecting that bleed. Watch for any change in the score after the next report. That change will tell you whether the bears are right or whether the market has already priced in the worst.

For more on CHTR, see the CHTR stock page and market analysis.