Carrefour's H1 results show improving sales in France and Spain, with Brazil returning to growth. Risks from high rates and geopolitics remain, GlobalData says.
Alpha Score of 66 reflects moderate overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, poor quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals — score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
Carrefour's H1 2026 results show improving sales in its largest markets of France and Spain, with Brazil returning to growth, signaling early traction for its "Carrefour 2030" transformation strategy, according to GlobalData retail analyst Dora Punk.
Group like-for-like sales rose 2.1% in the 26 weeks through June 30, Punk said in a note. The performance came despite geopolitical uncertainty and cautious consumer spending. Carrefour also completed the sale of its Romania business during the period, a move Punk said allows greater focus on core markets where the group sees the strongest returns.
France remains the key driver of Carrefour's recovery. Second-quarter like-for-like sales in the country rose 1.0%, marking a fifth consecutive quarter of growth. Punk said Carrefour's commercial initiatives are improving customer engagement and strengthening its value proposition. The rollout of AI tools such as Vusion's smart shelf technology, ScoVision and the Hopla shopping assistant will enhance operational efficiency and the in-store experience over the long term, she added.
The integration of acquired retailer Cora & Match in France is another positive. Punk said those stores are seeing improved volumes and stronger customer traction, though profitability within the acquired banners remains temporarily constrained by targeted price investments and elevated marketing activity. The success of the acquisition will depend on converting sales momentum into sustainable margin improvement, she said.
Spain delivered one of the strongest regional performances. Second-quarter like-for-like sales rose 2.2%, reflecting continued strength in fresh food, convenience and e-commerce. Punk said this reinforces Carrefour's focus on core markets where execution is generating both sales growth and margin expansion.
Brazil provided early signs of stabilisation. Like-for-like sales there returned to positive territory at +0.4% in the second quarter, against a tough comparative of 4.4% growth a year earlier. Punk said Carrefour's pricing, operational and cost-control measures are helping offset a difficult consumer backdrop while supporting profitability despite subdued demand. Still, the market remains under pressure from high interest rates and constrained consumer spending, which continue to weigh on overall retail demand. Given Brazil's significant share of total sales, Carrefour will need to maintain recovery in Brazil to drive group second-half performance, Punk said.
Carrefour carries an Alpha Score of 66 out of 100, a Moderate rating reflecting its mixed recovery trajectory.
The next catalyst for the stock is the group's second-half performance. Punk said Brazil's recovery will be key to sustaining momentum.
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