Canada-US Trade Talks Collapse: A Lesson for India's Deal-Making with Washington

Taken together, Carney said, the US “asked too much.” After the talks broke down, Trump declared Canada wanted “the benefits of being a state, without being one.” The US has imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods, and Canada has promised dollar-for-dollar retaliation.

India, which has been pursuing its own trade deal with Washington, should study the Canadian experience closely, according to the analysis. US Ambassador Sergio Gor said most major elements have been agreed “in principle,” and Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to return to India in October. But only days before the Canada-US talks collapsed, Trump had declared that deal all but done.

Carney’s warning that “sometimes its signature is written in pencil” applies beyond Tehran. The Canadian experience shows that an “agreement in principle” may not survive the final stages. For India, the risk lies in buried clauses on agriculture, digital economy, or freedom to negotiate with other countries. Canada thought it was at the finish line. Then Washington moved the line.