Cameco CCJ: Uranium Price Rises; Westinghouse Weighs

Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) closed at $95.59 on 20 August 2026, down 2.44% on the day. Market capitalisation is about $41.67 billion. The stock has gone sideways for three months, roughly 29% below its 12-month high of $135.24.

The reason sits in the second-quarter report. Cameco earned net income of $25 million and adjusted EBITDA of $391 million in Q2 2026. The company attributed the year-on-year decline mainly to reduced equity earnings from its 49% stake in Westinghouse and lower planned sales volumes. The uranium business itself performed well: the average realised price rose to $93.13 a pound, against cash costs of $55.84 – a gross margin above 40%.

That split is the whole investment case. The uranium segment is working. The reactor business is lumpy, and the market cannot model it reliably.

Cameco sells most of its uranium under long-term contracts struck years in advance. The headline spot price is a sentiment indicator, not a revenue input. The company’s 2026 guidance puts the full-year realised price at $91.00 to $96.00 a pound – a narrow band. Even if spot uranium jumped to $150, Cameco’s 2026 revenue would barely move because the pounds are already committed. Management has described its contracting discipline with floors in the high $70s and ceilings around $160, escalated. That means the downside is defended, but a spot melt-up gets captured only partially.

Westinghouse is the wild card. The reactor business books large, irregular milestones on multi-year projects, making quarterly equity income inherently volatile. Two things could change how the market values it. The first is the AP1000 build cycle, supported by a conditional US Department of Energy commitment of $17.5 billion. The second is a potential Westinghouse listing. Analysts have suggested a valuation in the $23-30 billion range for the unit. Cameco’s 49% share of the low end would be roughly $11 billion against a $41.67 billion market capitalisation. An IPO would not create that value – it would disclose it, replacing an opaque equity-accounted line with an observable market price.

Published analyst targets span a wide range. Stockanalysis.com reports a consensus of $130.75 across 23 analysts with a Buy rating. MarketBeat shows individual targets from $81.09 to $160.19. The spread of about $80 reflects genuine disagreement over Westinghouse, not noise.

The bear case does not require uranium to fall. At $95.59, the trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 166.7. That multiple is only defensible if earnings grow substantially. The near-term uranium line is capped by the contract book, so growth must come from Westinghouse – the segment that just disappointed. A second risk: Cameco produced 3.9 million pounds in Q2 but sold 7.1 million, making up the difference with purchased material that carries no mining margin. A sustained gap between production and sales commitments compresses the margin regardless of the realised price.

CCJ has a CCJ stock page Alpha Score of 54/100, labelled Mixed. The stock is up roughly 26% over twelve months, outperforming utilities like Constellation Energy and Vistra, which fell. The reason: Cameco sells fuel under long-dated contracts, not electricity. It is the lower-beta, longer-duration expression of the AI-power theme.

Any Westinghouse listing news is the catalyst with the largest single effect on the share price. The Q3 realised price and 2027 contracting terms matter next. If production closes the gap on sales volumes, cash costs fall. Cameco’s base expectation is that the stock spends the next two quarters between $85 and $115 while the market waits for Westinghouse to become legible.