Brent Tests $91; Strait of Hormuz Risk Premium Widens on Iran Strikes

Israel has not joined the U.S. campaign, and Iran did not target Israel during this round of strikes. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said the country did not plan to enter the fight in the near term, Israeli media reported.

Brent is testing resistance at $90.50 to $91.00, a zone that has held since early 2023. A break above that range would open a run toward $95.00 to $95.50, traders said, with the $100 level coming into view above that. WTI faces resistance at $86.00 to $86.50; a move through that band sets up a challenge of $91.50 to $92.00. On the downside, a slip below $83.00 exposes the $80.00 to $80.50 support zone.

Natural gas is attempting to clear $2.90. (See related analysis) Resistance sits at $3.00 to $3.05, with the 50-day moving average at $3.09 above that. Support at $2.75 to $2.80 has held; a break below it opens a test of $2.50 to $2.55.

The rally in crude has pushed refining margins to record levels, traders said. Feedstock costs are rising faster than product prices adjust. The spread between Brent and diesel futures widened sharply, reflecting supply disruption risk through the Hormuz chokepoint.

The weekly U.S. Energy Information Administration inventory report is due Wednesday. A draw in crude stocks would reinforce the supply-tightening narrative. A build would test how much of the current price is disruption premium versus genuine tightness.