
Brent crude pushed above $94 a barrel on Wednesday, extending gains. The Middle East conflict shows no signs of easing. The Strait of Hormuz closure tightens supply, with the $100 level in sight.
Brent crude pushed above $94 a barrel on Wednesday, extending gains. The Middle East conflict showed no signs of easing. The front-month contract has rallied more than 12% since the start of October, with traders pricing in a prolonged disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
The strait, a chokepoint for about a fifth of global oil consumption, remains effectively closed to commercial traffic. Chris, a senior analyst at FXEmpire and a proprietary trader, said the closure is putting pressure on markets. Short-term pullbacks are possible, he said. The market remains impulsive in its moves.
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is within weeks of hitting a minimum operating level, Chris said. Other countries are in a much worse position, he added. The supply shortfall from the Middle East has not been fully offset by other producers.
On the charts, Brent has cleared resistance at $94 and is now testing the psychological $100 level. The 50-day moving average at $89.60 provides support, a gap that signals the market is overextended, Chris said. A pullback to the $90 area would be healthy. The fundamental driver of the rally, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has no obvious catalyst for reversal.
WTI, the U.S. benchmark, traded at $90.20 a barrel, up 1.8% on the session. The spread between WTI and Brent has narrowed to $4 a barrel as U.S. exports surge to fill the gap left by Middle Eastern barrels.
A lasting change in the oil market requires a shift in the attitude between Washington and Tehran, Chris said. That is not happening, he added. The Brent market is being priced in for some type of catastrophe, he said. The market remains reactive to headlines.
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