Brent Crude Eyes $98 as Supply Risks Mount, Inventory Data Awaited

Oil markets are bracing for a second straight weekly decline in U.S. crude stockpiles, with the Energy Information Administration forecasting a 500,000-barrel draw for the week ended July 17. The report, due Wednesday, follows a period of elevated geopolitical risk that has kept supply disruptions front and center.

U.S. military strikes against Iran and Yemen’s Houthis have reignited fears over Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz transit. A missile strike near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s terminal on the Black Sea halted crude receipts from Kazakhstan, removing a key export route. Saudi crude exports fell for a third consecutive month in May, adding another layer of tightening. The combination has pushed Brent crude above $92, with the front-month contract trading at $92.13 on the 4‑hour chart, above both the 50‑period exponential moving average at $85.55 and the 100‑EMA at $82.82.

Natural gas, by contrast, remains range‑bound. Prices hover near $2.88, below the 50‑EMA at $2.93 and the 100‑EMA at $3.00. Analyst Arslan, who holds an MPhil in behavioral finance, said sellers still control the short‑term trend. Immediate resistance sits at $2.90, followed by $2.95, then $3.02 and $3.09. Support lies at $2.82, then $2.78, with further levels at $2.73 and $2.66. The relative strength index at 48 signals a directionless market. Arslan noted that a sustained move above $2.90–$2.95 would improve momentum toward $3.02, while a drop below $2.82 would open a path to $2.78. The EIA expects U.S. LNG exports to average 17.4 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, up from 15.1 Bcf/d this year, as new capacity comes online and global demand stays resilient.