
Brent fell below $90 before recovering to $92 after the US paused airstrikes on Iran. Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi ports, but analysts say de-escalation hopes remain fragile as key issues persist.
Brent crude fell more than 7% at the open on Monday, dipping below $90 a barrel before recovering to trade near $92. The drop came after the US held off on strikes against Iran since late Friday, following 13 consecutive days of attacks. Iran’s army said Tehran had suspended its responses.
West Texas Intermediate also declined, along with European natural gas. The global benchmark, tracked in our crude oil profile, had surged more than 25% this month as the conflict spread from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea.
Still, the risk of disruption remains. Tehran-backed Houthis in Yemen said they struck facilities linked to Saudi Aramco in the Red Sea port towns of Jizan and Yanbu on Saturday. Neither Riyadh nor Aramco confirmed the claim. Saudi authorities issued emergency warnings for two provinces over the weekend before lifting them.
Yanbu has become the kingdom’s key crude export outlet, handling millions of barrels a day since the Strait of Hormuz became effectively shut. Jizan is home to an Aramco refinery and export terminal. The East-West pipeline that terminates at Yanbu now carries the bulk of Saudi oil to global markets.
“The pause in strikes and reports of progress in talks has raised expectations of a de-escalatory pathway emerging again, which could lead to a rebound in flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, alleviating oil market pressures,” said Saul Kavonic, senior energy analyst at MST Marquee.
“All the key issues, including Iran’s nuclear program and its control of the strait, remain intractable, and there is a high risk any ceasefire proves merely temporary,” Kavonic added.
Asked on NBC’s Meet the Press whether President Donald Trump had decided against escalation, US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said the president was “giving the talks some space.”
The oil price surge has raised concerns about a global inflationary shock. Stockpiles are falling, and product prices have jumped. The Federal Reserve will meet July 28-29 to assess policy, with the energy impact likely a topic of discussion.
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