
Brazil starts 60-day trade talks with the U.S. after tariffs up to 37.5% on $7.4B of exports. Steel, sugar sectors most exposed. Embraer exempt. Risk of retaliation or deal before October elections.
Brazil formally launched a trade reciprocity process Thursday, opening a 60-day window for direct talks with the United States before possible retaliation against American goods. The move follows a 25% tariff the Trump administration imposed on Brazilian exports in July, and a second 12.5% levy tied to forced-labor allegations.
Brazil's Foreign Ministry said it will notify the U.S. government and request diplomatic consultations. The goal is to reduce or eliminate the trade restrictions that now hit roughly $7.4 billion of Brazilian exports, or about 18% of the country's shipments to the U.S., according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.
The combined tariffs can reach 37.5% on specific categories including sugar, apparel, paper and steel. More than 2,200 product lines were exempted, among them coffee, beef, fertilizer and Embraer aircraft.
Brazil's Economic Reciprocity Law, passed in response to the original tariff increase, allows the government to suspend trade concessions, impose new taxes, eliminate exemptions, or restrict imports from the offending country. The law says countermeasures should be proportional to the economic damage caused.
Brazil has described the U.S. tariffs as "arbitrary, unjustified and illegal" and said it submitted technical evidence disputing the claims of unfair trade practices. The United States ran a $1.5 billion trade surplus with Brazil in the first half of 2026.
The dispute carries a geopolitical dimension. President Donald Trump initially linked the tariffs to legal proceedings in Brazil against former President Jair Bolsonaro, a political ally. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva accused the U.S. of interfering in Brazil's October 2026 elections, where Flávio Bolsonaro is the main challenger. Tensions have escalated further: Washington recently revoked the visa of Brazil's ambassador to the U.S.
A potential escalation would most directly hit Brazilian steel producers and sugar exporters, which face the highest tariff rates. Embraer, the aircraft maker, dodged the restrictions but could see indirect pressure if broader trade tensions slow Brazilian manufacturing. U.S. exporters of machinery, chemicals and farm products could face Brazilian countermeasures if talks fail.
What could reduce the risk: a negotiated settlement within the 60-day period that addresses U.S. concerns about forced labor and intellectual property while restoring normal tariff levels. Brazil's law aims for proportionality, so a partial deal that lifts some tariffs could defuse the situation.
What would worsen the risk: no agreement and Brazil imposing retaliatory tariffs ahead of the October elections. A further escalation, such as U.S. sanctions or additional tariffs, could trigger a spiral that hits trade volumes well beyond the current $7.4 billion scope. The visa revocation adds a layer of diplomatic friction that complicates negotiation.
The 60-day window closes in mid-October, weeks before Brazil's election. Investors with exposure to Brazilian equities, especially steel and sugar companies, will watch for any signs of compromise at the upcoming G20 finance meetings.
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