BPGDM at Zero: Gold Mining Sentiment Hits Historic Low

The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index fell to zero on Tuesday, a reading that has not appeared since the 2015 gold bear market. The indicator, tracked by StockCharts under the symbol $BPGDM, measures the percentage of gold mining stocks in point-and-figure uptrends. At zero, every stock in the index is technically in a downtrend.

The index dropped from 100 in January to roughly 31 in early June, then to 7.7 in one week, then to zero the next week. The Deep Dive, a market commentary source, described a zero reading as "no longer describing routine weakness" and said it shows "the internal technical base of the gold-mining group has been cleared out."

The selloff in mining equities has been steeper than the decline in gold itself. Gold has fallen more than 20% from its all-time high of $5,589 an ounce on Jan. 28, 2026, putting it in bear market territory. Last Friday a 3.2% drop pushed it below its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023, ending a 660-day run that is the third longest since 1970. The catalyst was a strong U.S. jobs report that reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts.

Headline inflation rose to 4.2% in May, its highest since April 2023, driven by energy costs tied to the Iran conflict. Core inflation climbed to 2.9%. Both readings work against a dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve.

The Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is down 10.4% over the past six months. The Van Eck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) has fallen 13.4%. The Deep Dive noted miners are "basically gold with operating leverage and equity-market baggage attached," which explains the larger losses. Major producers like Newmont (NEM) are trading at record-low price-to-earnings multiples while generating record-high profits.

Contrarian analysts see opportunity in the extreme reading. Streetwise Reports said "we have clearly moved from optimism to stress to fear" and argued the selling has largely occurred. John Newell of John Newell & Associates said contrarian investors with good timing are generally winners. "You do not get paid for following the crowd. You get paid for recognizing when the crowd has already acted," he said.

Metals and Miners blog called it "the exact contrarian setup that precedes massive, face-ripping rallies in the precious metals space." The blog pointed to stealth quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve, which has added over $200 billion to its balance sheet since the start of the year without a formal announcement.

UBS expects gold to rebound to $5,500 an ounce by year-end, citing elevated debt, U.S. fiscal deficits, and continued central bank reserve diversification. The World Gold Council argues, counterintuitively, that gold can post positive returns after Fed rate hikes because the dollar's movements matter more than the rate itself.

What would confirm the contrarian play is a close back above the 200-day moving average for gold, which would signal the breach was a false breakdown rather than the start of a deeper decline. Continued central bank buying, a steady source of demand over the past two years, would provide a fundamental floor. Stabilisation in GDX and GDXJ prices above their recent lows would also support the case.

What would break it is a further selloff in gold below the $3,900 area, which would invalidate the bottom call. Hotter inflation prints or a hawkish surprise from the Federal Reserve could push yields and the dollar higher, extending pressure on the metal. If the BPGDM stays at zero for several weeks without a bounce, the selloff could be structural rather than cyclical.

The next catalyst is the Federal Reserve's June meeting and the updated dot plot. A signal that rate cuts are further delayed could weigh on gold. On the other side, any escalation in the Iran conflict that drives safe-haven flows could provide a short-term bid.

For traders watching the setup, the gold profile page tracks the spot price. The NEM stock page shows how the largest producer is positioned through the downturn.