Boot Barn targets $2.6B sales, $8.64 EPS in fiscal 2027 (BOOT)

Boot Barn Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BOOT) set its fiscal 2027 revenue target at $2.6 billion and earnings per share at $8.64 during its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call, framing a growth path that leans on store expansion and sustained same-store sales momentum. The company reported record sales for the just-completed fiscal year, and first-quarter comparable sales rose 5%, signaling that consumer demand remains resilient. The outlook, however, arrives with a clear risk overlay: management flagged tariff and freight cost headwinds that could pressure margins if trade policy escalates.

Fiscal 2027 Revenue and EPS Targets

Boot Barn’s $2.6 billion sales target for fiscal 2027 implies a step up from the record fiscal 2026 top line. The $8.64 EPS target becomes the central number for valuation models. At recent prices, the forward multiple implied by that target will be a key metric for investors. The company did not break down the assumptions behind the guidance. The combination of new store openings and mid-single-digit comp growth suggests management expects to add meaningful incremental revenue. The record sales in fiscal 2026, while not quantified on the call, provided the baseline for the new targets.

Q1 Comp Strength and Store Expansion

The 5% same-store sales increase in the first quarter provides a solid foundation for the fiscal year. Boot Barn is expanding its store base and reiterated plans to open more locations. New stores typically ramp up over several quarters, and the comp growth indicates that existing locations are not cannibalizing sales. The dual growth engine–unit growth and comp growth–is intact. If comps decelerate, the $2.6 billion target could become harder to reach. The trend is positive for now.

Tariff and Freight Cost Headwinds

The most consequential risk flagged on the call is the exposure to tariffs and freight costs. Boot Barn sources a significant portion of its merchandise from overseas, with China being a major supplier of western boots and apparel. The U.S. has maintained tariffs on a range of Chinese goods, and there is ongoing debate about potential increases. The current tariff rate on many apparel items is 7.5% plus the normal duty. Proposals to raise that to 25% or higher, however, have circulated. Freight rates, while off their 2021-2022 peaks, remain elevated due to Red Sea disruptions and capacity constraints. Management’s guidance likely embeds some cost inflation. A sharp escalation in tariffs could raise the landed cost of goods by several percentage points. Boot Barn’s gross margin, which is a bright spot, would come under pressure. Even a modest compression in gross margin would flow directly to the bottom line, making the $8.64 EPS target vulnerable.

What Would Reduce the Risk

A de-escalation of trade tensions or a rollback of existing tariffs would directly lower the cost base. Freight rate normalization, driven by resolution of Red Sea disruptions or increased shipping capacity, would also help. Additionally, Boot Barn’s ability to pass through higher costs to consumers without sacrificing unit volumes would cushion margins. The 5% comp suggests the brand has pricing power. The elasticity of demand for discretionary western wear, however, is untested in a tariff-driven price hike scenario.

What Would Make It Worse

A further increase in tariffs on Chinese imports, particularly if apparel and footwear are targeted, would hit Boot Barn disproportionately. A consumer spending slowdown, triggered by broader economic weakness, could simultaneously pressure top-line growth and limit the retailer’s ability to raise prices. In that scenario, the $2.6 billion sales target would be at risk, and the store expansion plan could become a drag on returns if new locations underperform. The combination of cost inflation and demand softness would be the worst-case outcome for the EPS target.

The next concrete marker is the company’s first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings report, where management will update its tariff assumptions and provide a read on comp trends. Any trade policy announcements from Washington will also move the stock. For now, the guidance sets a high bar, and the market will price BOOT based on the perceived achievability of that $8.64 EPS figure in a fluid cost environment. For broader market context, see our stock market analysis. For traders positioning around the next catalyst, see our list of best stock brokers.