BlackRock Tells Gold Miners to Cut Buybacks, Boost Output

BlackRock’s natural resources chief pressed the world’s largest gold miners to redirect capital from share repurchases into new production, calling the current buyback wave a risk to long-term supply.

Evy Hambro, head of natural resources at the $10 trillion asset manager, said companies including Barrick Mining Corp (B) have announced roughly $12 billion in collective buyback programs. He argued that those funds would be better spent on mine development, given the industry’s need to replace depleting reserves and meet rising demand for gold as a monetary hedge. Hambro’s comments, reported by multiple outlets on October 16, mark one of the strongest public interventions by a major institutional investor in mining company strategy.

Barrick, the world’s second-largest gold producer, operates tier-one assets including Nevada Gold Mines, a joint venture with Newmont, and the Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan. The company rebranded from Barrick Gold to Barrick Mining in 2025 to reflect its growing copper focus. Its current market capitalization stands at $67.22 billion, and its stock trades at $40.82.

The buyback push has been a central feature of Barrick’s capital return program. The company’s dividend yield is 2.42%, supported by a payout ratio of just 24%. Dividend growth has been strong: a three-year compound annual growth rate of 24.7%. Hambro’s critique implies the balance between shareholder returns and reinvestment has tipped too far toward the former.

Barrick’s balance sheet is strong. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 0.17, and its operating margin exceeds 52%. Earnings rose 173% year over year, and three-year revenue growth is 19.3%. The company’s Alpha Score, a composite of fundamental strength, momentum, and valuation, stands at 70 out of 100, with a Moderate label. That score reflects strong profitability and growth, offset by a valuation that the GF Value metric, a GuruFocus proprietary model, suggests is about 20% above intrinsic worth.

Hambro’s call comes as gold prices hover near record levels, giving miners ample cash flow but also raising the temptation to return capital quickly rather than commit to long-cycle projects. He said that companies typically apply more rigorous due diligence to new mine investments than to buybacks, implying that the latter can become a default use of cash rather than a disciplined allocation.

For Barrick, the message lands at a time when its capital spending plans are already under scrutiny. The company is advancing the Reko Diq copper project and expanding Lumwana in Zambia, both of which require multi-year investment. Hambro’s argument suggests that slowing buybacks to fund those projects would strengthen the company’s long-term production profile and potentially support a higher valuation over time.

The broader industry context reinforces the point. Global gold mine production has been flat to declining for several years, and reserve replacement has become more expensive as easy deposits are exhausted. BlackRock’s push aligns with that structural challenge: if the largest miners do not invest now, output could shrink in the latter part of this decade, pushing prices higher but eroding volume growth for producers.

Barrick’s stock page on AlphaScala provides additional detail on the company’s financials and insider activity. GuruFocus data shows that 10 of 14 tracked gurus increased their Barrick positions in recent quarters, while six reduced. Insider trading has been minimal, with no reported purchases or sales in the past 12 months.

The debate over buybacks versus investment is not new for the mining sector, but Hambro’s public stance gives it added weight given BlackRock’s influence as a top shareholder in many of these companies. Whether Barrick and its peers adjust their capital allocation will become clearer when they report fourth-quarter results and outline 2027 spending plans.