
Matt Hougan says the crypto industry will keep growing even if the CLARITY Act fails this week, pointing to SEC rulemaking and institutional momentum.
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, said the crypto industry will keep advancing even if the CLARITY Act fails to pass the Senate before its summer recess. The legislation would set clearer rules for digital assets, distinguishing commodities from securities and strengthening investor protections. Senate rules require a cloture vote early this week for any chance of a floor vote before the chamber adjourns around August 7. Lawmakers return in mid-September.
Prediction markets assign low odds to the bill becoming law in 2026, Hougan said in a client note Monday. The difficulty of advancing a bipartisan measure during an election year explains the market's skepticism, he said.
Passage would be the ideal outcome, Hougan said. It would provide durable statutory clarity and boost U.S. competitiveness. The industry does not need it to move forward, he argued.
Failure to act before the break would not be final. The bill could enter a prolonged period of uncertainty, sometimes called a “walking dead” phase, where revival talks continue in the fall or through a year-end omnibus package. That ambiguity has kept some institutional capital on the sidelines. Professional investors prefer to wait for clearer signals.
Hougan said a decisive drop in passage expectations could actually help. It would remove the overhang and let markets refocus on fundamentals later in the year.
More significantly, Hougan said the industry itself will push ahead regardless of what Congress does. He pointed to recent statements from SEC Chair Paul Atkins indicating the agency is ready to issue rules covering many of the same issues in the CLARITY Act. Agency-driven guidance could prove more supportive of crypto innovation than a compromise congressional package, Hougan said. A future administration could reverse those rules, he acknowledged, but the window of opportunity – at least two and a half years under current conditions – gives the sector time to deepen its foundations.
Evidence of that momentum is already visible, Hougan said. Major traditional finance players have expanded their involvement. Bitcoin exchange-traded products have become highly profitable vehicles for leading asset managers. Institutions are advancing tokenization initiatives. Payment networks are collaborating on stablecoin platforms. Brokerages have launched blockchain infrastructure integrated with decentralized applications. Banking regulators have granted trust charters to several digital asset firms. International jurisdictions continue introducing supportive frameworks.
Hougan drew a parallel to the early internet era. Congress delayed telecom legislation in the mid-1990s, but that did not halt rapid technological and commercial expansion. Congress eventually caught up, but the intervening period of growth proved decisive. He said crypto has already achieved sufficient scale and integration into global finance that no single legislative setback can reverse its trajectory.
Passage of the CLARITY Act remains preferable, Hougan stressed, because it would provide durable statutory clarity and strengthen protections. Yet its absence this week would not signal the end of progress. The sector’s underlying drivers – institutional adoption, technological maturation, and real-world utility – continue to advance. The longer-term path appears resilient, he said.
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