Bitcoin slipped below $63K as a one-day AI stock bounce failed to hold. August's median return of negative 8% and a Fear & Greed Index at 25 set up a test of $58K support.
Alpha Score of 76 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, weak value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
A one-day relief rally in chip stocks evaporated on Friday, and Bitcoin slipped below $63,000 as the crypto market entered its historically weakest month with the Fear & Greed Index at 25, the lowest level since mid-2024.
Thursday's bounce in Samsung and SK Hynix – each up roughly 25% on the KOSPI – briefly suggested the selling in AI-linked equities had exhausted itself. The KOSPI had plunged 25% over weeks of brutal selling on concerns about the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending. Friday's failure to hold those gains left the index back near its lows, and crypto followed.
Bitcoin traded at $62,800, down 3% over the past 24 hours. Ethereum slipped to $1,860, a 2.8% daily decline. Solana stood at $73, down 2%. XRP held at $1.06, flat compared to its peers.
The Fear & Greed Index, tracked by Alternative.me, fell to 25 from 28 a week ago, moving from "Fear" to "Extreme Fear." From CoinGecko, DeFi was the top-performing category over the past seven days with a return of 0.0%. The best corner of the market broke even.
August is historically Bitcoin's weakest month. The median return over the past five cycles is negative 8%, according to data from CoinGlass. Applied to the current price near $63,000, that would put Bitcoin around $58,000, a level that overlaps with several technical support zones traders have been watching since June.
The correlation between AI-linked equities and crypto has tightened over the past year. Both draw from the same pool of speculative capital. When institutional money gets nervous about Nvidia's valuation or Samsung's memory-chip outlook, that anxiety flows into digital assets within hours. This week's move was no exception.
Thursday's relief rally in Samsung and SK Hynix – a 25% single-day jump – briefly looked like a capitulation bottom. The failure to follow through on Friday is a common pattern in dead-cat bounces, several traders said. Until AI stocks find a sustainable floor, digital assets will struggle to rally on their own merits.
Some investors see opportunity in the extreme-fear reading. Historically, Fear & Greed readings below 25 have marked decent medium-term entry points for Bitcoin, according to data from Coindesk. Catching a falling knife during August, with AI stocks still searching for direction, requires either conviction or a very high pain tolerance.
DeFi's flat performance amid broader declines suggests some rotation into yield-generating strategies as traders look for ways to put capital to work without taking directional risk. That is a defensive posture. When the best trade available is breaking even, smart money is telling you something about where it thinks prices are heading next.
The next catalysts are the July CPI and Fed meeting, both scheduled for the second half of August. Traders are watching for any sign of a rate cut that could re-ignite risk appetite.
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