Bitcoin broke below $60K as put option volume on the IBIT ETF doubled. A 48% chance of another 10% decline by end of next month, options data shows.
Alpha Score of 56 reflects moderate overall profile with strong value, moderate quality, moderate sentiment. Based on 3 of 4 signals – score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
Bitcoin futures fell to $58,995 on Thursday, the lowest since October 2024, pushing the cryptocurrency more than 50% below its peak. The $60,000 level, which had acted as support in February and again in June, broke under the weight of a coordinated selloff that also hit gold and oil.
“Over the last few days, we have seen profit booking across assets that had rallied on geopolitical uncertainty and liquidity expectations,” said Nischal Shetty, founder of WazirX. “Bitcoin, gold and oil have all corrected together, which tells us that investors are reducing exposure to the same macro trade across markets.”
The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) traded nearly 1.1 million options Thursday, almost double the 30-day average, according to a CNBC report. Put option volume was more than double call option volume, a clear preference for downside protection. The data implies a 48% chance that IBIT could fall below $30.50 – another 10% decline from current levels – by the end of next month, the report said.
Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the LeBit mining pool, predicted Bitcoin would trade in the $42,000–$44,000 range sometime between October and December, as reported by CoinDesk.
The dollar and the rotation into AI stocks
The U.S. Dollar Index climbed to a 13-month high, a headwind for Bitcoin given its historically inverse correlation with the dollar, said Prateek Gupta, head of business at Mudrex.
“Capital has been flowing back into select AI and technology stocks, while ETF inflows into Bitcoin have slowed compared to earlier periods,” Shetty said. “That creates a temporary imbalance where selling pressure is not being matched by the same level of buying demand.”
What would confirm a deeper correction
Gupta said a decline toward the $42,000–$44,000 range appears less likely at current levels. “For that scenario to unfold, Bitcoin would first need to lose the key $54,000 support amid further macro deterioration and heavy liquidations.”
Markets are now focused on upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data, including PCE inflation, GDP growth, and jobless claims, Gupta noted. For long-term investors, he said, such corrections often create attractive accumulation opportunities.
“During past cycles, Bitcoin has seen deeper corrections before a reversal towards a new all-time high,” he said. “Investors could make regular, consistent investments into the asset based on their risk appetite to generate better risk-adjusted returns over time.”
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.