Binance.US plans to apply for a CFTC license next month to launch a prediction market, CEO Stephen Gregory said. The move targets Kalshi and Polymarket as the exchange seeks to rebuild after regulatory setbacks.
Binance.US is preparing to enter the prediction market space, aiming to challenge Kalshi and Polymarket for a slice of the fast-growing event-contract business.
The U.S. arm of the global crypto exchange plans to apply for a designated contract market (DCM) license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission next month, CEO Stephen Gregory said during a panel at Rare Evo in Las Vegas. A DCM classification would let the platform offer futures, options, and event contracts to retail clients.
Eleanor Terrett, host of Crypto America, described the planned application as part of the company's "comeback strategy" – one built around lower trading fees and expansion beyond spot crypto into perpetuals and prediction markets.
The push comes after years of regulatory setbacks that gutted Binance.US's U.S. market presence. Since Gregory took over as CEO this year, the exchange has introduced near-zero trading fees, announced plans to enter derivatives, and set a goal to regain market share. Prediction markets would add a revenue stream that doesn't depend on crypto trading volumes.
Binance.US's trading volume cratered after Binance Holdings – the broader global platform – settled a massive legal battle with federal agencies in 2023. Binance Holdings admitted to violating major banking acts and paid about $4.3 billion in penalties. Former chief Changpeng Zhao spent four months in prison, though President Donald Trump later pardoned him.
Zhao still holds a majority stake in Binance.US. Since his release, he has publicly pushed for growth avenues that could revive the platform's domestic footprint, though he insists his role is purely technical.
"We want to do much more business in the US," Zhao said in one statement. "We want to bring a superior product into the US. We want to make the superior product offering much more accessible to the US consumer."
A Binance.US spokesperson said the platform's core mission is to become the leading U.S. venue for buying, trading, and earning crypto assets, with a focus on new products and adapting to user needs.
If Binance.US secures CFTC approval, it will join a growing list of firms entering the prediction market space. Gemini recently obtained its own license. Coinbase partnered with Kalshi to offer event contracts. Robinhood Markets is reportedly exploring a deal with Crypto.com to list the exchange's prediction market contracts on its app, according to the Wall Street Journal – though no agreement is guaranteed.
Robinhood currently sources event contracts from Kalshi, Interactive Brokers' ForecastEx, and Rothera. Its share of Kalshi's trading volume has been declining since Rothera's addition. Overall, trading activity on the platform exceeded 16 billion event contracts this year, up from more than 12 billion in 2025.
Kalshi remains the dominant U.S. player. The firm saw World Cup betting handles reach $27 billion, eclipsing the $1 billion wagered on the Super Bowl. Sports categories pulled in 80% of customer order flow across Kalshi and Polymarket during the cup.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said in June that he considers Robinhood a key rival, despite their ongoing partnership.
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